I’m not sure if any polls have been taken on ‘war or peace?’, but from my frequent interaction with the villagers that I come into contact with, it appears that although they are mostly down to one meal a day, due to the state of the economy in general and prices of essentials in particular, they are willing to tough it out because they have been told the war is being won and hard times will soon be over. And they aren’t the only ones – just glancing through kottu is enough to be aware that many of us bloggers feel that way too – even though we may not be quite down to a meal a day. Great! The thing about all this, though, is how long can the villager endure the one meal a day scenario, which will probably get worse before it gets any better for them? And for us all? Should a time-line be established for this (the Defense Secretary, I think it was, said that it would be over and done with within this year) and some alternative plan of action put in place if there is no victory within the year? How long to wait? And what of the economy?
So, does any one want to postulate on what happens if the war drags on and the prices keep going up?
Ephemeral Ruminations 
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February 4, 2008 at 2:03 pm
SpectralCentroid
Well, the critical questions are whether they were any better off before the current range of military operations started and if things will magically improve if the war is won.
February 4, 2008 at 2:42 pm
patavi
>> does any one want to postulate on what happens if the war
>> drags on and the prices keep going up?
Suppose, that by 2008 December the SLA is not in Killinochchi and there are still regular bombings in Colombo, while the prices of commodities are still going up.
Then the UNP will easily topple the government at the latest during the next budget.
There will be peace talks sponsored as usual by Norway.
We will have a few more years like 2002 and then the government will be toppled again- because the prices will still be going up and the terrorist wants more …
And then you will remember your blog post in 2008 February and do a follow up post, what if, …
February 4, 2008 at 3:21 pm
sittingnut
“peace”, “victory” etc will not result is prosperity ( or even two meals a day). there are too many poor peaceful countries to believe that.
anyway you are not clear about what you mean by victory etc.
i will define real peace and victory as substantial reduction in terrorist criminals’ ability to control lives of sri lankans directly or indirectly, except for occasional bombs ( which unfortunately will be a fact of life here as in other countries ). i believe that can be achieved and in any case the only moral and pragmatic course open to sri lankans given the reality . there is no other option. we will and have to see it through .
to come back to earlier point, such a peace and victory will give us an expansion in opportunities for individual development for people willing to work hard. even now in spite of war there are opportunities for such people in areas not directly under ltte ( in those areas there are no opportunities – another reason to defeat the criminals ). most of us are making most of that opportunity. that is why the economy is growing and that there is no mass movement against government even though the inflation is high. ( inflation hurt mainly ppl who earn fixed salaries not ppl who run businesses, produce, and provide services )
ultimately if a person anywhere in world dont eat more than one meal that is his or her own fault. ( unless the person is a child or is disabled).
in addition such a peace and victory will give gosl more freedom to follow more market friendly reforms, expanding opportunities further and we will have an opportunity to elect a more market friendly government without electing a peacenik government in the process ( at present we don’t have that alternative unless unp dumps ranil and changes policy)
victory and real peace will not end economic problems, it will only give us an opportunity. whether we as individuals take it is a different matter.
February 4, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Jack Point
Some seem to believe that the war will be over by April, others by the end of the year.
Not sure if these are generally representative of the population as a whole.
February 4, 2008 at 4:17 pm
javajones
Sittingnut – if you read the post carefully you may understand that I wasn’t making any judgment or holding a brief either way – the question was:
“does any one want to postulate on what happens if the war drags on and the prices keep going up?”
You’re welcome to postulate.
February 4, 2008 at 10:17 pm
sittingnut
i did not assume in my comment that you were “making any judgment or holding a brief either way ” in this post , what gave you that idea? 🙂
in fact as i said “you are not clear about what you mean by victory etc”. so what i did first was to define what that means and consequently what is meant by “war dragging on” or not. postulations needs to be clear , esp given the other comments where as in your post, words like “won” were used
similarly i also clarified that war, “victory” and “peace” does not have much connection with whether we have high inflation, prosperity etc. ( look at some peaceful poor countries ) and has more to do with individuals, and expansion and making use of opportunities ( already there and may be offered by peace, government policies etc) .
if you want my answer to your “question” clarified –
“if the war drags on and the prices keep going up” , there will not be much change from present policy. sri lanka will try to defeat the terrorists because “there is no other” ” moral and pragmatic course”. “we will and have to see it through” till we achieve victory and peace ( as defined ). there wont be a change of government bc as long as unp=ranil we wont have the alternative of a “more market friendly government without …a peacenik government ” and due to moral and pragmatic reasons public will not get peaceniks into power
–
btw ( to go outside the narrow postulation you request ) victory and real peace as defined can be achieved perhaps during the year perhaps later but for sure.
February 5, 2008 at 1:01 am
javajones
Sittingnut – thanks a lot
February 5, 2008 at 7:13 pm
sittingnut
you are welcome 🙂